Trumpism's next act

The 2020 presidential election was supposed to resolve how important “Trumpism” was to President Trump’s success. It didn’t.

So it remains an open question how much economic populism and skepticism of foreign entanglements, two things that distinguished Trump ideologically from at least the previous three Republican presidential nominees and arguably more, contributed to making him president, as opposed to his celebrity and reputation as a businessman.

But we now know that, at the least, it wasn’t just Hillary Clinton. Joe Biden was a more popular candidate overall than his predecessor as Democratic standard-bearer, and, nevertheless, Trump competed. Whatever the final results are in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania after various lawsuits work their way through the courts, the Rust Belt plus the Sunbelt remains a viable path for a Republican majority in the Electoral College.

Trump, as a businessman, did not understand that personnel was policy, so he built an administration in which some people were committed to his policy program, some were loyal to him personally, and some were competent at wielding the levers of government, but very few checked all three boxes. Trump spent 2017 not building bridges across the country — “Infrastructure Week” became a punchline — but building them with Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan. It was understandable given their poor relations during the campaign but was ultimately a missed opportunity at a time when Trump had the most political capital to spend.

Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz may be the only full-spectrum Trumpist to have emerged. Some Republicans are with Trump on trade or immigration but not ending “endless wars”; others are with Trump on foreign policy but not immigration or populism; still others share his ability to connect with conservative cable news viewers but no distinctive policy program. Gaetz channels Trump in all three areas. Is that enough to carry this particular torch effectively?

COVID-19 complicates any evaluation of Trumpism. With the benefit of hindsight, a convincing Trump win without the pandemic or with a pandemic response that inspired greater public confidence no longer seems absurd. Even in spite of Trump, a working-class conservatism that appeals to more black and Hispanic voters than anything Jack Kemp earnestly and admirably attempted to do can be seen in nascent form if you squint hard enough. Will anyone take up its mantle?